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Hezbollah’s Shortsighted Strategy for the War in Gaza

This commentary argues that Hezbollah felt duty-bound to open a front in Southern Lebanon to ease Israel’s military pressure on Hamas. Hezbollah indicated that its participation in the war will continue until reaching a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, apparently expecting the hostilities to last only for a few weeks. However, the war dragged on for months as Israel pledged to keep it going until destroying Hamas and, contrary to what Hezbollah expected, pushing it away from the border area to ensure the safety of its residents in the upper Galilee settlements. The fighting in Southern Lebanon turned into a war of attrition against Hezbollah as Israel eliminated most of its field commanders by drone attacks. Should Israel succeed in evicting Hezbollah from the border area, it would lose its claim to resistance to liberate Lebanese territory still occupied by Israel, increasing the pressure on it to disarm like all other Lebanese factions when the civil war ended in 1989.

Hezbollah s Shortsighted Strategy for the War in Gaza
 

 

 

 

Hamas’ decision to launch Operation al-Aqsa Flood on Israel last October took Hezbollah by surprise since all indicators at the time suggested that Hamas ought pacification with Israel and focused, instead, on managing Gaza and consolidating its rule over the besieged sector, the world’s most congested territory. Hezbollah was in no way interested in fighting Israel, despite its pompous claims to the contrary. Hezbollah’s anti-Israel role ended in 2000 when it pulled out unilaterally from Southern Lebanon without even reaching an agreement with Lebanon. Since then, the occasional minor attacks it launched on Northern Israel aimed at swapping Lebanese prisoners with Israelis to justify the usefulness of its military wing for Lebanese factions that resented its failure to disarm like all other local militias. While Hezbollah continued to express its ultimate objective of driving Israel from still-occupied Lebanese territory in the South, it practically served as Iran’s leading regional proxy in serving the interests of the Islamic Republic, mainly in Syria and Iraq.1

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